24 for ’24: The numbers that will shape a crucial year in politics


The presidential election year is finally upon us — and with it, many important questions.

Will a challenger emerge who can pose a significant threat to Donald Trump’s renomination? What are the signs that a rematch of the 2020 election might end differently? And which party will have the upper hand in the pitched battle to control Congress?

There are key data points that will answer all of these questions, if one knows where to look.

Here are 24 of those numbers to watch in the new year:

1.

Donald Trump’s share of white evangelical Christian votes in Iowa

Eight years ago, Trump lagged with white evangelicals in Iowa (21 percent, tied with Marco Rubio for second place), who made up roughly six-in-10 caucusgoers, according to the entrance poll. But he’s now dominating this bloc — leading Ron DeSantis 56 percent to 22 percent, according to a recent Fox Business poll — foreclosing any path for DeSantis or Nikki Haley to usurp him.

2.

Nikki Haley’s vote share among women in New Hampshire

If Haley is going to pull off an upset in the second GOP contest, she’ll need to improve upon a gender gap that’s developed in recent weeks: The strongest woman presidential candidate in Republican Party history is running better with men than women. A St. Anselm College poll this month, which showed Haley at 30 percent overall, found the former South Carolina governor only 6 points behind Trump among men, 40 percent to 34 percent, but a whopping 25 points shy of Trump among women, 48 percent to 23 percent.



3.

Write-in vote share for “Joe Biden” in New Hampshire

The president’s name won’t be on the ballot in the first-in-the-nation primary next month thanks to the president's efforts to put South Carolina first in the Democratic contest lineup, but his allies have launched a write-in campaign in an effort to deny Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) any oxygen off the bat. Still, the move isn’t without risk if the write-in effort falls short of expectations.

4.

Biden’s approval rating

Historically, presidents with approval ratings significantly below 50 percent have lost reelection. As of Friday, Biden’s average approval rating stood at 40.5 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

5.

Number of Donald Trump convictions before Election Day

Between state charges in New York and Georgia, plus federal cases in D.C. and South Florida, the former president is currently facing 91 felony counts. Though the charges don't seem to be deterring Republican primary voters, polling suggests a........

© Politico