Joe Biden and Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary. But it was not exactly a show of strength.
While the pair did cruise to victory, there were clear signs of discontent in the electorate. Rather than a dominant win for the two likely nominees, a POLITICO analysis of detailed election results and exit polls suggests there are serious downsides for the four major candidates still in the race.
Beneath Trump’s victory was a continued struggle to win support from independent and moderate voters, key constituencies who doomed his reelection effort four years ago. His main challenger, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, couldn’t get enough support from conservatives to notch her first win. And her primary path becomes brutally difficult, with future states looking like the parts of New Hampshire where she struggled the most.
The Democratic side, where the primary was not sanctioned and didn’t award delegates, was messy in a different way. About 1 in 3 voters did not participate in the write-in effort for Biden, who deliberately did not put his name on the ballot because the state did not comply with DNC rules. But those skeptical of the president also did not flock in large numbers to Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, who struggled to win over ideological voters and build a coalition.
New Hampshire just helped set up the rematch most Americans don’t want. But it turns out, the voters wanted the other options even less.
Just look at the data.
Nikki Haley has a primary election problem
Haley’s performance on Tuesday night, coming within 11 points of Trump, was enough for her to claim momentum in the two-person race.
The former South Carolina governor picked up about 43 percent of the vote, performing best in highly educated towns where most adults have college degrees — a continued strength that she first showed in Iowa. She received her highest municipal vote share, nearly 85 percent, in Hanover, home........