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How screwed is Adam Kinzinger?

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Former President Donald Trump would love to take down Adam Kinzinger, one of his chief House GOP antagonists, in next year's midterms. But Democrats might beat him to it.

Illinois lawmakers are on the verge of rolling out a new congressional map that will very likely gut Kinzinger’s exurban Chicago seat, according to several sources close to the redistricting process, leaving him with just a few bleak options for remaining in office next year.

The elimination of his district would force the veteran Republican congressman to choose between running in unfamiliar territory, possibly against another incumbent, or making a long shot run for governor or Senate in a blue state — and that assumes Kinzinger could prevail in a GOP primary after spending the last year criticizing a former president who remains beloved by the base.

“Adam, right now, he and I get along great. What he’s doing, he’s doing. But if you look at the Republican electorate in any one of those districts — probably not,” said Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) when asked if Kinzinger could win in a different seat. “It'd be hard.”

Democrats in the state insist that Kinzinger’s likely fate is driven solely by geographical considerations. Thanks to declining population, Illinois is losing one of its 18 congressional districts, and Democrats in charge of the process need some of Kinzinger’s blue-leaning voters to shore up Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and an open seat in the northwest corner held by retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.).

Illinois is one of only a handful of states where Democrats have total control over redistricting, which means they’ll attempt to maximize party gains through the new map. With only a narrow majority and a historically tough midterm approaching, House Democrats plan to press their advantage in those states to squeeze out every last possible seat.

In Illinois, they’ll need to bolster the 12 incumbents seeking reelection, hang on to Bustos’ district — which has become increasingly competitive — and transform GOP Rep. Rodney Davis’ seat in the center of the state into a........

© Politico

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