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GWYNNE DYER: Is a third world war coming?

A poll conducted in the four biggest NATO countries shows the majority believe a world war is inevitable within five years

A Politico opinion poll conducted in the four biggest NATO countries in February revealed almost identical popular expectations about the likelihood of a global war in the next five years.

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In every one — the US, the UK, France and Germany — they think it is quite likely.

Forty-six per cent of Americans think that, and so do 43 per cent of British and French people. The Germans are the optimists in the group, but even 40 per cent of them think a third World War is no more than five years away.

Canadians agree about that, but unlike the Europeans, who see the Russians as the biggest threat, Canadians fear an American invasion most.

How likely is it that a world war will happen?

These expectations and fears are not exactly wrong, but they are certainly premature.

A world war is a war that involves all the great powers and almost certainly involves the use of nuclear weapons. We haven’t had anything like that for 80 years. The probability that it will happen in the next five years is not zero, but it is a very, very small number.

Now, if you want to count every........

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