AUKUS and the sunk cost trap beneath the surface |
As warfare shifts decisively toward autonomous and distributed systems, Australia’s massive investment in nuclear submarines risks locking in a costly and inflexible strategy.
Richard Marles gave a polished performance at the National Press Club. Smooth, confident, practised. He spoke about drones, autonomy and the changing character of war. He sounded modern. But beneath the language of innovation sat an older and much heavier reality: Australia is still tying itself to one of the slowest, most expensive and least adaptable military projects in its history.
That is the contradiction at the heart of AUKUS.
Marles is not unaware of autonomous systems. He referred to uncrewed capabilities and undersea warfare. But that only sharpens the question. If Defence now openly accepts that autonomy, robotics and distributed systems are transforming warfare across all domains, why is Australia still betting so much on a tiny fleet of immensely costly, crewed nuclear submarines that will arrive deep into the 2030s and 2040s?
This is not a minor procurement issue. It is a question of strategic judgement.
The case for AUKUS rests on the assumption that large, crewed nuclear submarines will remain among the most valuable assets in the maritime battlespace for decades to come. That may prove true. But it may also prove disastrously wrong. The point is not that submarines are already obsolete. They are not. The point is that Australia is........