Arab nations face a very hot future, more severe heatwaves will continue for 1,000 years after we reach net zero, and changing land use has contributed to global warming, now global warming is damaging the land.

Arab nations warming at twice the global rate

The Arab region contains 22 very diverse countries that span North Africa, East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is about 70 per cent larger than Australia and its population is about 16 times larger. The region (which geographically includes Israel of course) is one of the most climate vulnerable in the world:

The regional average temperature in 2024 was the highest on record: 1.94oC above the average for 1961-1990 compared with the global average of 1.19o

Since 1991, the region has been warming at twice the rate of 1961-1990 and twice the global average rate (0.43oC per decade compared with 0.2oC).

In 2024, rainfall was up to double the average in some areas (eg, northern Sudan and the southern Arabian Peninsula) and less than half the average in the north of the region.

Sea level rise has exceeded the global average of 3.4 mm per year except along the Mediterranean Sea.

The region is among the hottest in the world and since 1981 the number of heatwave days per year has been increasing, particularly in the near east and the north of Libya and Egypt.

Extreme weather events, mainly floods and heatwaves, caused 300 deaths and affected 3.7 million people in 2024.

19 of the 22 countries are considered water-scarce and the region contains 15 of the world’s most water-scarce countries.

Droughts are a long-term feature of the region but drought intensity does not seem to be increasing. In western North Africa droughts worsened in 2024 after six failed rainy seasons.

It is clear that many of the countries in the region will be severely challenged by both short duration and more permanent declines in agricultural yields, damage to physical infrastructure including homes, increasing health problems, displacement of large numbers of people, increases in social inequality, disruptions to supply chains, economic losses and poor prospects for investors.

Land-use change and climate change in vicious cycle

For agriculture, settlements and infrastructure, humans have been tearing down forests, ploughing up grasslands and draining wetlands at increasing rates over the last three centuries. The changes........

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