Labor’s primary vote is weakening while Green preferences remain crucial in close contests. Albanese’s hostility to the Greens may become increasingly difficult to sustain.

Anthony Albanese should be careful about continually insulting the Greens. He may rue the day!

Just elected, David Shoebridge said that his objective is not to reform Labor but to replace it. That may not be as bold as it sounds. The first preference Green vote at the last two elections has been around 12 per cent. Recent polling shows it at around 13 to 15 per cent. The ALP first preference vote is down to 28 per cent.

The strategic interdependence between the ALP and Greens in relation to preferences contrasts sharply with the adversarial relationship between their parliamentary leaderships.

The Labor Party has good reason to be nervous and Albanese’s immediate response to Shoebridge’s election shows it.

Determined to occupy the political centre and make Labor “the natural party of government”, Anthony Albanese may be imperilling Labor.

Can David Shoebridge find a way to break through the Green voter ceiling of 12 per cent? He will need to contend with legacy media, which is consistently hostile to the Greens, like watermelons, green on the outside and red on the inside.

In several countries we are seeing disillusionment with major parties and the Greens increasing their vote significantly. In New Zealand the most recent polling shows the Greens at 16 per cent. This was the highest NZ Green polling number ever recorded. In the United Kingdom, polling puts the Greens at 10 to 13 per cent, up from 6.7 per cent at the last election. In the US, Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York mayor has demonstrated the electoral appeal of democratic socialist programmes centred on housing,........

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