2024 Election: Indonesia’s Prabowo will not rule in anyone’s shadow
On 14 February, Indonesia holds simultaneous elections for the presidency and national and regional legislatures. The runes suggest the current Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto is on track to be the next President. He will not be boring.
To win a presidential election, a presidential/vice-presidential ticket must gain more than 50% of the vote. If none so prevails -as might occur where there are three or more tickets- a runoff is held between the two leading tickets with the third dropping out. If a runoff is held this year, it will be on 26 June. The new president will be installed on 20 October.
The candidates for President are Prabowo whose running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, son of the current president, Joko Widodo; Anies Baswedan, a former University President and Governor of Jakarta; and Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java.
So far, Prabowo is leading easily, with most polls putting him in the mid to high forties with a couple over the fifty percent threshold. The other two candidates are at around twenty percent with Anies a tad ahead.
The immediate issue is whether Prabowo wins in one round or whether the process drags on to a second with the two leading candidates vying for the votes of the third.
The runoff would be unlikely to change a win for Prabowo but would introduce an element of uncertainty and four months more of campaigning could put strains on Prabowo’s........
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