The proposed NDIS overhaul marks a rare moment of substantive reform – and a test of whether the Albanese government is willing to follow through in the face of political pressure.

New National Disability Insurance Scheme reforms pose a novel test of character for the Albanese government. If form were any guide, it would be one which Albanese could be expected to fail, if only from fits of nervousness and secret lobbying from old cronies. But there are some grounds for optimism about the government suddenly getting its first flush of courage in four years of government with its proposals for reform of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. That’s in part because so far uncontainable annual growth means that the government must do something. And because the proposal is being steered by an unusually competent minister in Mark Butler, the minister for health. One can only hope his example will provide some momentum for wider change, and not only in the welfare sector.

Albanese and his press unit can, of course, claim hundreds of “reforms” and important announcements in four years of government. Many were dreamed up by advertising agents and media units and, like many of the Gillard announcements of 15 years ago, were dead in the water within a week. Many were oversold, involving only piecemeal change, and have made little difference to the lives of voters. Even some that were intended to make a difference, such as childcare reforms, have foundered as inflation has eaten away the investment.

The NDIS proposals differ greatly from other bits of tinkering with the status quo by the Albanese government. They will cause upset and anger among communities who deserve compassion and respect. The changes go beyond the foreshadowed fiddling with the entitlements of younger folk with developmental delays but into a new system which sees wide review of entitlements now to be based on degree of disability.

The plan is to shave existing entitlements going to 750,000 down to about 600,000 by 2030, which, given the unrestrained growth of the scheme may mean that 400,000 who might have expected to receive some benefits then will not.

It could foreshadow the same sort of review of other programs in health, education, aged care and childcare which the government ought not be avoiding. It might also, if Albanese had the guts to take on Richard Marles, minister for defence, extend to the primary source of government waste, incompetence and corruption, in defence.

But Butler is not focused on mere cost-cutting. He has been searching for governing principles and rationales, accepting that some of the flaws in the scheme were in the original design. These have been compounded by fraud, and rorts, and some crooked operators in a system too unregulated, but the malfeasance and misfeasance are only a secondary problem.

Most of those currently receiving NDIS benefits allowing them to live in dignity within the community will not have their entitlements threatened. People with permanent and major disabilities – 80 per cent or more – will not have things change much. The focus for change will be for those with developmental difficulties. These conditions are real too, and those who lose entitlements can be expected to........

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