Japan’s rapid rearmament marks a decisive break with its post-war pacifist stance. As regional tensions sharpen, Australia and New Zealand must decide whether alignment offers security or invites new risks.

Tectonic shifts are underway in Japan that further confirm how much and how fast our world is changing. Recently announced Japanese rearmament will place a heavily-armed and nationalistic Japan on a potential collision course with China. What is driving this? Is Japan acting in concert with the US to contain and ultimately confront China – or are we witnessing a Japan that is emerging from US occupation? Should Australia and New Zealand welcome or fear Japanese rearmament?

Australia and New Zealand paid scant attention to the 8 February snap election that handed Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’ Sanae Takaichi (LDP party) and her allies the super-majority needed to complete the nationalist agenda of turning Japan back into a major regional military force capable of projecting power. It will spell the end of the pacifist Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution – the cornerstone of foreign policy since 1947 – and could bring us closer to a devastating regional war.

Soon after taking office late last year, Takaichi announced Japan would move rapidly to increase defence spending in its five year plan to 2 per cent of GDP from 2027, a massive hike from the traditional 1 per cent, given Japan is the world’s fourth largest economy. Japan may soon leap up the global rankings for defence spending from its current tenth place to number three.

Upon assuming the premiership last year, Takaichi immediately provoked China by saying Japan would view any move on Taiwan as a “ survival-threatening situation (sonritsu kiki jitai). This was seen by regional scholars as a deliberate code reference to the framing of Japan’s occupation of Taiwan and Manchuria in WWII.

At the same time, Japan ratcheted up the........

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