Ley's by-election to test Coalition

The looming by-election in Farrer is shaping as a four-cornered contest that could reveal how vulnerable the Coalition has become.

The by-election for Sussan Ley’s regional electorate of Farrer is likely to come down to a four-cornered contest between One Nation, the Liberals, the National Party and an independent.

Of those, the Nationals have the worst prospects and may opt out of a fight that would probably demonstrate their increasing electoral weakness.

Labor, which would have no chance of winning, will probably save its money and watch from the sidelines – while cheering on and providing votes to the independent.

From 1984 to 2001 Farrer was held for the National Party by Tim Fischer, who was deputy Prime Minister under John Howard. Before that it had been held by Liberals. On Fischer’s resignation the seat was contested by both the Liberal and National Parties and was won by Sussan Ley – narrowly defeating the National Party candidate by just over 200 votes.

Under the Coalition agreement, the........

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