Israel's lessons for Victoria |
The Israeli election has some lessons for Australia. Especially for the Victorian election in four weeks’ time.
As in Israel, a majority of voters do not like the incumbent government and are determined to vote it out. All reputable polls have Labor’s vote in Victoria with a 2 in front of it. None has it over 30. The Coalition hovers around 30 and One Nation is in the low 20s.
Victoria has single-member electorates, not proportional as in Israel. Single-member systems tend to hand a higher proportion of seats to the party with the most votes than their percentage of the vote would warrant and the loser gets a lower percentage. For example, last election federal Labor got a third of the primary vote but two-thirds of the seats. Single-member systems usually produce an outright majority government when there are two major parties and only small minor parties and independents.
But with One Nation scoring more than 20 per cent, the dynamic changes dramatically. Victoria’s election this month will be the first to be affected by that dramatic change.
In all likelihood, the two major parties’ primary vote will not yield either of them a majority of seats. One Nation will get at least 15 per cent of the seats and deny both major parties any chance of a majority. And both major parties say they will not govern in coalition with One Nation.
It will put Victoria in much the same state that Israel is in now. In Israel, voters’ determination to oust Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has resulted in a new parliament (Knesset) with neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition bloc with a majority and an Arab bloc with between 15 and 20 per cent of the seats which neither of the major blocs will allow into government or even be willing to accept its support as a minority government.
The stalemate in Israel is that both major blocs are in the position of not being able to govern without the Arab parties (in practical terms), but politically not being able to govern with them.
That could easily happen in Victoria: both the Coalition and Labor are in effect saying to One Nation: “We won’t govern with you even if we cannot govern without you.”
Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson has, thus far, formally repudiated a formal coalition or governing alliance with One Nation, stating: “There is no deal. The only way to change the direction of Victoria is with a majority Liberal and National government.”
The same impasse could easily happen federally in 2028. My guess, though, is that in Australia the jingle of the keys to the ministerial wing is much louder than the solemn promise not to deal with One Nation. And that cuts both ways.
At the beginning of a new parliament, there is no sinking ship for rats to desert. To the contrary, with a full term of government in front of them, enough One Nation MPs could be easily enticed into supporting a Coalition government and vice versa.
When a newly laden political ship has to stay afloat, you will always find some rats to work the bilges.
A significant matter in Victoria will be the position of the governor, former Monash University vice-chancellor and distinguished academic Professor Margaret Gardner, who was appointed by the king on the recommendation of former premier Dan Andrews in August 2023, a month before Andrews resigned as premier.
The governor’s constitutional role after an election is to call upon someone to form a government. When no political party has a majority that can be difficult. Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, is in that very position now.
Convention has it that the governor acts on the advice of the premier and the governor-general acts on the advice of the prime minister. But that convention gets a bit murky if the premier/prime minister no longer commands a majority in the newly elected lower house. It means there is an element of discretion.
There are options: let the existing premier continue in government and wait........