The US is worried about dependence on Chinese critical minerals, but its rushed deadline ignores the years of investment, infrastructure and allied cooperation needed to rebuild industrial capacity.

When ancient Greek commanders burned their own bridges and ships after marching into hostile territory, the psychological calculus was brilliantly simple. By making retreat physically impossible, they forced their soldiers to commit entirely to winning the battle ahead. It is a legendary tactic for generating absolute resolve.

But military historians will quickly point out a crucial caveat: forcing a confrontation only works if your army actually possesses the weapons, training, and capability to fight.

Washington’s latest defence industrial policy embraces the aggressive commitment of the ancient Greeks but completely ignores the requisite capability.

On July 20, President Trump signed an executive order titled “Securing America’s Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials.” The directive establishes an unforgiving January 1, 2027 deadline that sharply restricts the waivers allowing defence contractors to purchase critical minerals from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Moving forward, prime contractors (tier-1 suppliers holding direct US Department of Defense contracts) must prove they are actively funding domestic or allied alternatives to receive an exemption.

The underlying diagnosis of this mandate is entirely correct. A Government Accountability Office review previously warned that the Defense Department cannot reliably track where Chinese-sourced inputs enter its weapons programs. Reinforcing this alarm, research firm Govini found Chinese suppliers embedded in thousands of........

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