The great discontinuity: the war on Iran marks the end of the world we knew |
The war on Iran may trigger economic, geopolitical and energy disruptions that permanently alter the global order – leaving Australia dangerously exposed.
There have been three occasions in my time on this planet when the trajectory of the world as I knew it, at least from the very fortunate vantage point of an Australian living in Australia, bifurcated.
The first was September 11 with the terrorist attacks in the United States. Which stripped away much of the naivety of a 20 something year old soon to be father. The second was the Global Financial Crisis where it appeared for a while that the financial system which underpins economic activity, and hence prosperity, could collapse. The third was the COVID pandemic, an event which had the most direct impact with shortages of staple goods, movement restrictions and a small taste of what authoritarianism looks like.
Yet after each of these three events, life in Australia has largely returned to what would be considered normal.
We are indeed the lucky country.
For unlike many other countries around the world, such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or Yemen, where bifurcations have led to years if not decades of systemic hardship, death and destruction, Australians continue to enjoy a high standard of living as well as something that many of us in my view take for granted. That is a stable functioning society, even though this has started fraying in recent years. Primarily because of the poor quality and divisive leadership from our political class.
The unprovoked war of aggression against Iran by Israel and the United States will create another bifurcation. This time however I suspect life will not simply return to normal once the Tomahawks and Kheibar missiles stop flying. What we are facing is a discontinuity. There was a world before 28 February 2026. And the world after 28 February 2026 will never be the same.
Total War – what happens when you don’t leave an outlet free
As I noted in What is Iran's Strategy, Iran has a been backed into a corner. It is fighting for its existence.
Sun Tzu in The Art of War noted that “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard." Yet the demands of the US during the negotiations (which were still underway when Iran was attacked – an act of perfidy) effectively offered Iran nothing. The US demands required Iran to capitulate. Coupled with the subsequent attacks by Israel and US, Iran was backed into a corner. There was........