The war has strengthened Iran’s strategic position while weakening US alliances, credibility, and influence across the Middle East.

There is no doubt the United States will come out of this war in a worse strategic position than when it entered it. For now, despite pressure from Netanyahu, it seems Trump is prepared to live with a situation where the key issues concerning Israel remain unresolved. It remains to be seen whether Trump continues to feel the political and economic costs of an escalation are prohibitive, but there is no military solution to the impact Iran can have on energy shipments, and on Trump’s political fortunes.

By any measure, the ceasefire is a humiliation for Donald Trump which calls into question the judgment and competence – and even the stability – of the US President in launching the war in the first place.

The outcome of the war so far represents the successful exercise of Iranian leverage (military and geographic and economic, within a framework of tight internal control) over US military might. If Iran had been dealing with a more competent, less impulsive US president, that leverage would have been less potent.

Contrary to the arguments advanced by Netanyahu to Trump in getting his agreement to launching the war, the Iranian regime remains intact, and even more hardline in its ideological approach.

The sacrifices of the Iranian population, before the war was launched, in seeking the long-overdue replacement of the theocratic regime by one which more accurately reflected Iranian popular aspirations and potential, have once again been wasted.

The consequences of the war at the global level will take time to emerge, but a repressive, disciplined Iranian regime has shown it is possible to outlast and outwit a foolishly-led, isolated but militarily superior power.........

© Pearls and Irritations