While it is highly likely net migration is now past its peak and declining, the data to this stage suggests it may only be falling gradually.
Permanent and long-term movements are the earliest approximation of net migration that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes. The data for December shows net permanent and long-term movements for the six months to December 2023 was around 96,000 higher than in the six months to December 2022 (see Table 1).
Table 1: Permanent and Long-term Movements July to December
The higher net long-term and permanent movements for the six months to December 2023 was driven to a significant degree by large student arrivals in the September quarter of 2023 (see Table 2) and ongoing growth in working holiday makers. That will likely result in net migration for the 12 months to September 2023 being even higher than for the 12 months to June 2023 which was around 518,000. The ABS will publish the data for net migration to September 2023 in March/April. That will no doubt cause another stir in the media and amongst various politicians.
Permanent and long-term arrivals remained consistently higher in the first six months of 23-24 compared to 22-23. That will also be worrying the Government.
Long-term and permanent departures in the first three months of 23-24 were below the levels in the same three........