In his Budget reply, Peter Dutton said he wants to cut the permanent migration program from 185,000 to 140,000 while maintaining a two-thirds to one third balance in favour of the skill stream. We subsequently found out that this is part of his plan to reduce net migration to 160,000.
The permanent migration contribution to net migration is much lower than the size of the permanent migration program because around 65 percent of the program is delivered via people who are already onshore and hence already counted in net migration.
Family stream
The family stream in 2024-25 is planned to be 52,500. If Dutton was to reduce visas issued in the family stream while maintaining the desired ratio, that would amount to a cut of around 6,200, leaving a family stream of 46,300.
But the Migration Act requires partner and child visas to be managed on a demand driven basis. While Dutton was able to illegally limit partner visas when he was minister, there is now much better knowledge in the media of the legal issues. They would take him to task if he again tried to limit these visas.
Demand for partner visas will rise over the next few years with the rise in younger temporary entrants in Australia and more Australians travelling overseas long-term. I suspect that is why Dutton has........