Much has been made by the International Education Industry of a 2023-24 Treasury estimate that 84 percent of overseas students go home. Apart from the accuracy of this estimate over ten years after the Knight Review recommendations were implemented, the Industry argues that because a large percentage of students go home, there is no need for the Government to manage student numbers or student policy. This reflects a misunderstanding of the policy problems the Government is trying to address.
Apparently, the 84 percent of students go home is based on the fact that for some period prior to 2013-14, around 16 percent of students were securing permanent residence and hence 84 percent were going home. That is nonsense.
The Industry seems to have assumed the Government thinks students securing permanent residence, particularly on the basis of the skills acquired in Australia, is a poor public policy outcome. On the contrary, that is a good public policy outcome, especially if the students are being sponsored for skilled migration by Australian employers. The key problem is if a large cohort of students get stuck in immigration limbo, unable to secure a skilled visa because they can’t get a skilled job but unwilling to go home.
How accurate is the 84 percent estimate?
Over........