This Sydney Morning Herald article reports on ACIL Allen modelling undertaken for Sydney University which concludes that in 2025, there will be around 60,000 fewer international students enrolling compared to 2023 and will lead to job losses of around 22,000. The rationale for this is based on a flawed understanding of how Net Overseas Migration works.
Referring to the ACIL Allen modelling, Sydney University in its submission to the current Parliamentary Inquiry into amendments to the ESOS legislation, states that:
“Based on the Government’s stated targets for Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and data from its 2023 Population Statement, it is obvious that a significant contraction in international student numbers is being considered for 2025. Preliminary economic modelling undertaken for the University by ACIL Allen Consulting demonstrates the following impacts in 2025 from a 30 per cent reduction in international students in 2025 compared to 2023.”
The submission goes onto state:
“Net Overseas Migration will reduce from a peak of 510,000 in 2022-23 to........