THE tragedy of unplanned wars is that they are often started by ambition but finished by exhaustion.

It appears that Operation Epic Fury is a war of this nature. With the USA-Israel and Iran war entering its second week, peace seems unlikely. At the war’s outset, Trump and Netanyahu anticipated that the death of Iran’s supreme leader would trigger public disobedience. But so far, the regime has not only survived but has also fought back, causing harm to America and allies in the region. This current flare-up is unlike previous ones. Israeli leaders now increasingly view Iran as the main force behind a regional strategy. Iran is seen as using groups like Hezbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias and the Houthis in Yemen to surround the region.

The war serves no American interests, aside from America’s role as Israel’s strategic partner. This is a significant risk for Donald Trump, given the upcoming November midterm elections and his desire for a major advantage beforehand. If a win-win situation arises from the Iran war, Donald Trump could see his popularity rebound. Iran, in contrast, functions via a well-established power framework. Power is distributed across various constitutional and military entities, rather than being concentrated in one person. The Supreme Leader presides over strategic direction; the Guardian Council and Majlis function within an ideological constitutional framework. Critically, the IRGC possesses significant military, political and economic power. Iran’s regional strategy is built on asymmetric deterrence. Tehran opts for missile capabilities, drone warfare and allied non-state actors to build strategic depth, rather than competing with conventional airpower. For the war’s first 10 days, fierce battles raged and many countries were drawn into the conflict. The conflict has escalated, jeopardizing global energy reserves and harming the world’s economy. The economic consequences of escalation are huge. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ control over the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to jump by as much as 20 percent and they may rise even more soon. Responding to Donald Trump’s declaration that the US Navy will escort oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC has challenged the Trump Administration to attempt to reopen the oil trade route. Simultaneously, multiple theaters could become active due to regional escalation. Hezbollah’s northern border with Israel continues to be a volatile area. US assets have been attacked by militias in Iraq and Syria before. Cross-border insecurity and refugee flows could spill into neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, which shares a sensitive border with Iran. Kurdish tensions might resurface in Turkey and Afghanistan’s fragile internal balance could undergo unexpected changes.

The most serious long-term danger is likely strategic proliferation. Should Iran determine that new threshold crossings are necessary for deterrence, its regional adversaries might do the same. However, the main question persists: can this conflict end in a definitive triumph? Israel and the USA have firmly declared they will continue targeting Iran’s new supreme leader, with Donald Trump demanding complete surrender from Iran. US intelligence officials have, in fact, doubted whether strikes can bring about regime change in Iran. Concurrently, Democrats are issuing a warning that the airstrikes against Iran are reducing the US’s supply of particular arms.

Operation Epic Fury has so far failed to produce the decisive results anticipated by Washington and Tel Aviv. The war has cost America $3.7 billion in its initial 100 hours, causing damage to American installations in GCC countries. The GCC nations have issued another warning to the US, threatening to withdraw their investment if the conflict continues indefinitely. A well-known Dubai businessman, Khalaf Al Habtoor, posed a question to Trump via an X post on Thursday. “Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war? According to The New York Times, which cited informed sources, Iran devised a covert military plan called “Madman” after the US attacked its nuclear facilities last year. The strategy aimed to make any future conflict with Iran prohibitively expensive for Israel, the US and regional Arab nations alike. The report indicates Tehran’s goal was to harm the economies, tourism, energy supplies, transportation and shipping of Washington’s allies. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, gave his approval for the operation, according to Iranian officials. The plan was meant to be initiated if Iran faced another attack, particularly if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died. To ensure command continuity in wartime, Khamenei allegedly designated four prospective successors for each vital military and civilian leadership role, preparing for the potential elimination of senior officials.

In the second phase, the focus was on attacks aimed at US military bases within Arab countries. The third phase planned a wider escalation, targeting civilian locations in Arab nations like airports, hotels and diplomatic offices frequented by Americans. Within days of the war’s start, Iran executed all three phases of the plan, as per The New York Times. The war’s impact is now engulfing energy infrastructure. If this trend continues, subsequent targets could include assaults on the water and food resources within the war-torn nations. To avoid wider involvement from other states, this war that violates all the international norms must cease now, as the risk of a worldwide war escalation is growing daily. If diplomacy fails and escalation continues, Operation Epic Fury may ultimately prove to be a strategic miscalculation by the Trump Administration—one that could place the United States on a path toward the kind of costly strategic setbacks it once experienced in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

—The writer is Commoner from 44th Common Educationist — Founder of WHI Institute.based in Sargodha.

© Pakistan Observer