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Geopolitical reckoning of Middle East turmoil

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12.03.2026

THE current Middle East turmoil caused by the US-Israel imposed war against Iran on the pretext of regime change, has deep links with a geopolitical reckoning of this crisis, which unfolds its internal and external dynamics.

Internally, this crisis shows Iran’s rift with US. Externally, the turmoil unfolds an extended surge in US-Israel perceived strategic interests to gain control over the Persian Gulf and its fossil fuels, thereby transforming Iran into a deep fragmented state, whereby both Washington and Tel Aviv could try to establish their strategic threshold beyond the Middle east, particularly the Eurasian heartland, including the South Asian region through their partnership with India and Afghanistan, with a motive to exert pressure on a rising middle power Pakistan. In theory, this is an ambitious US-Israel agenda while in practice, it is globally alarming.

Needless to say, the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran–conceived byregime change, has exposed glaring fault lines in US foreign policy in the region—paves the way towards a high-risk escalation trap. It signals that Washington takes risks that undermine its strategic credibility and regional partnerships. This US policy shift from deterrence to direct confrontation characterizes an ominous departure from decades old legacy of cautious diplomacy, potentially alienating allies wary of US policy direction. And yet, Tehran’s retaliatory posture accompanied with growing regional alliances seemingly suggests that US-driven unilateral strategy may backfire, resulting in weakening Washington’s influence in the region.

US-Israel war objectives: While attacking Iran amid the third round of nuclear talks clearly indicates that the US and Israel are........

© Pakistan Observer