THE suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India in 2025 has reignited one of South Asia’s most perilous flashpoints: water. For Pakistan, a lower riparian state whose agriculture, food security and livelihoods depend on the Indus Basin, the threat of disruption is nothing short of existential. The crisis raises three urgent questions: Can India truly stop Pakistan’s water? Will this dispute escalate into war? And what options does Pakistan have to safeguard its lifeline?

India’s announcement to suspend the IWT was framed as retaliation after violence in Kashmir. While the rhetoric was incendiary—Prime Minister Modi declared, “Blood and water cannot flow at the same time”—the practical capacity of India to halt Pakistan’s water is constrained. Geography and infrastructure limit India’s ability to divert or store significant volumes of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers. Experts note that while India can regulate flows through dams, it cannot completely block them without risking floods in its own territory. Yet even symbolic disruptions—particularly in winter when flows are lean—could devastate Pakistan’s wheat harvest and destabilize rural livelihoods. The threat is not unprecedented. India’s own water activist Anna Hazare once warned his government that “water is more precious than gold,” urging restraint in exploiting rivers for political ends. His reminder resonates today: weaponizing rivers risks not only neighbours’ survival but one’s own stability.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee has........

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