What the next phase of Iran war will look like if talks fail |
WHEN Operation Epic Fury began, widespread concerns the US was stumbling into another quagmire were unfounded. Instead of occupying an entire nation like Iraq and Afghanistan for nation-building purposes, Trump launched an air bombardment campaign from US-Israeli bases aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities. That meant Trump could stop the fighting whenever he wanted, exactly what happened. However, permanently ending the war with Iran is less easy for him. A peace settlement is still being relentlessly pursued, including by mediators like Pakistan. Hopefully, J. D. Vance will continue leading the American delegation, because changing personnel in the middle of talks is not a good idea. But supposing peace efforts fail, what should we expect continuation of war to look like?
First, the current ceasefire certainly means the end of the war’s first phase. A potential second phase is already taking shape, which will be different. The United States is seeking an alternative strategy to contain Iran, first by testing the waters, so to speak. The US Navy is seeing how far it can expand regional involvement without provoking war again. But if war does resume, it could become a prolonged affair. Iran’s response to the........