Former United Nations weapons inspector and U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter describes the outcome of the Iran War bluntly: “We lost. Game, set, match.” His conclusion is severe, but the strategic evidence gives it considerable weight. The United States has inflicted enormous physical damage on Iran, yet it has failed to translate destruction into political submission, without realizing that war is not ultimately measured by the number of targets destroyed. It is measured by whether political objectives are achieved. Judged by that standard, Washington has not defeated Iran.

Ritter’s second argument concerns the decline of America’s ground-war capacity. During Operation Desert Shield and Desert Storm, the United States deployed nearly 700,000 service members to the Persian Gulf. That force was possible because America had spent decades preparing for a major European war. Large formations were stationed in Germany, equipped, trained and ready for rapid movement. Strategic airlift, sealift and pre-positioned equipment supported deployment on an extraordinary scale.

By 2003, the available force was smaller, but Washington could still assemble approximately 200,000 personnel for the invasion of Iraq. It benefited from months of planning, deployment rehearsals and uncontested access to Kuwaiti ports, bases and airfields. American forces built up beside Iraq without facing missiles capable of destroying ships, ports, warehouses or troop concentrations.

Iran presents the opposite environment. It is nearly four times the size of Iraq, with difficult mountains, deserts, crowded cities, underground facilities and a population exceeding 90 million. Unlike Saddam Hussein’s isolated Iraq, Iran possesses ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, naval mines, coastal defences and hardened command networks.

A ground invasion would require not merely landing troops, but protecting ports, airfields, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, ships and supply convoys from continuous attack. The very concentration of forces necessary for invasion would create lucrative targets for Iran.

Ritter argues that occupying or forcibly disarming Iran could require between 800,000 and 1.2 million troops. Whether the exact number........

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