The war against Iran may ultimately be remembered not as the conflict that restored American and Israeli dominance, but as the turning point that accelerated its decline. Retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor has advanced a compelling theory: when the present conflict ends, Iran and Türkiye will emerge as the two principal powers shaping the Middle East for decades. Macgregor’s argument is not based merely on military inventories, economic statistics or temporary diplomatic alignments. It rests on a broader historical judgment: the period during which Western powers could enter a region, deploy overwhelming force and compel weaker countries to surrender is ending.

Military technology has proliferated, ancient civilizational states have recovered their confidence, and countries once treated as subordinate actors can now impose intolerable costs on even the strongest military powers. Iran’s survival and Türkiye’s resurgence provide the clearest evidence of this transition. Iran has faced an extraordinary concentration of military, economic and political pressure. The United States and Israel have attacked its military installations, missile sites, air defences, command centers and infrastructure.

Sanctions have restricted its trade and weakened its economy. Washington has demanded limitations on its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, regional influence and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has treated Iran as its principal strategic enemy, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have opposed different aspects of Tehran’s regional policies. American military bases surrounding Iran have provided operational support for the campaign against it. Yet Iran has refused to surrender.

Its government continues functioning. Its armed forces retain the ability to launch missiles and drones. Its underground installations have protected essential capabilities. Its leadership continues negotiating from a position of sovereignty........

© Pakistan Observer