It has been a year since the once-idyllic resort of Pahalgam was transformed from a picturesque destination into the epicentre of a geopolitical cataclysm.

The year since April 2015 has shown that while the Indian establishment initially tried to exploit the crisis as a stepping-stone to a definitive war with Pakistan, the reality on the ground is quite the opposite. One year on, the hard facts are indisputable: the Indian narrative of “Pakistan cannot survive, much less win, a high-intensity conventional conflict” has been shattered.

New Delhi’s military planners have long lived by the hubris of “escalation dominance”. This postulate was based on the assumptions that India could exercise its “first-strike advantage” below the nuclear threshold, knowing Pakistan had neither the conventional depth nor the will to exact full retaliation. Yet, the reaction to the ill-conceived Operation Sindoor, designed to test Pakistan’s military response, was a masterclass in why such thinking is not only perilous but also strategically unsound.

The conflict officially kicked off on May 7, 2025, with India’s missile strikes on alleged non-state terrorists. But, as the........

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