How long will the US-Iran war last? |
American war strategy is hostage to the American electoral calendar. President Trump will be asking: what does this war do to my numbers in the mid-term election in November? Yes, the war cabinet is speaking the language of national interest and regional stability, but the real map on the wall is not the Middle East — it is the swing states. History is unambiguous on this: Nixon prolonged Vietnam negotiations to win 1972. Bush declared “mission accomplished” with one eye on 2004. Obama’s withdrawal timelines from Afghanistan were written by pollsters as much as generals.
It is not in President Trump’s interest to prolong the conflict, particularly with November approaching.
For the record, Tehran enters this war not from strength but from defiant weakness. The economy was already on life support before the first missile was launched — decades of sanctions, a collapsing currency, inflation above 40 percent, and a middle class out protesting. Yes, the IRGC can absorb punishment but the Iranian bazaar cannot – no........