Chinese policymakers have shown strong commitment to further developing, diversifying and expanding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through its 15th five-year plan.

However, due to drastic changes in global geopolitics, its pace, progress and productivity are expected to slow down, particularly in Latin America during 2026.

The US attack on Venezuela and the abduction of its President, Nicolás Maduro, was a clear signal to China to stay cautious in Latin America, at least for the near term. China’s initiatives—from satellite tracking stations in Argentina and port development in Peru to economic support for Venezuela—have long been viewed as irritants by successive US Administrations, including that of former President Trump. International experts suggest that the US intervention aimed, in part, to counter China’s socio-economic influence and to secure smooth access to Venezuela’s cheap oil.

While the attack may temporarily cool Latin American engagement with China, the long-term foundation of Sino-Latin trade remains strong. Bilateral trade between Latin America and China has more than doubled in the last decade, growing from $235.9 billion in 2015 to $518.47 billion in 2024 and could exceed $700 billion by 2035. China has become the second-largest trading partner of the region and the largest for countries such as Brazil and Argentina. Chinese financial institutions have provided an estimated $303 billion in financing across Latin America between 2000 and 2023, far exceeding US lending, according to the AidData research institute.

At the 2025 China-CELAC forum, which brings together 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, President Xi Jinping announced a........

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