Arctic Fever: Canada’s Ambitions in the North |
The Arctic Is Increasingly at the Centre of Canada’s Defence Planning
Arctic security dominated headlines earlier this year as Trump renewed demands for control of Greenland. NATO allies responded by moving troops to the island, an unprecedented escalation between NATO members, highlighting the wearing threads of old alliances and putting a spotlight on the strategic importance of the Arctic.
Beyond this war of words, the Arctic’s strategic importance has been quietly growing. Diminishing Arctic ice has led to significant increases in traverses of the Northwest Passage (NWP) and to Arctic nations’ rising interests in resource extraction in the region, raising the economic and security stakes.
Despite fears about U.S. threats against Greenland and Canada, Russia and China remain the greatest threats to Canadian Arctic sovereignty. CSIS Director Daniel Rogers highlighted this risk in discussing the Arctic’s strategic importance for Canada, suggesting both nations desire economic and strategic advantage in the region.
Multiple Canadian policies have focused on securing and developing the Arctic (Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy and Arctic and Northern Policy Framework) including for resource extraction, and major projects like the planned over-the-horizon missile defence radar and the expansion of the Churchill Manitoba port. In March the Prime Minister’s Office announced plans for tens of billions in spending on Arctic and Northern infrastructure and defence, beginning to translate policy into tangible action. This was followed in April by the announcement of up to $8 billion in improvements at the 5 Wing Canadian Forces base at Goose Bay, Newfoundland which is slated to be part of Canada’s NORAD northern basing infrastructure (NNBI) modernization. These efforts all signal a continued push by Canada to take more control over its own security in the region.
But what can Canada actually do in the Arctic, and where should it focus its limited capacity? How do we ensure that investments in defence and major projects in the North translate into tangible value for the people who live there?
At its core, this is a question of balance. Canada must reconcile the imperative to secure and develop the North with its commitments to Indigenous rights and environmental stewardship. In practice, these priorities are likely to come into tension with pressures for resource extraction and the economic opportunities created by a warming Arctic.
There are three main areas that encompass the primary risks and opportunities for Canada in the Arctic: defence, infrastructure and resources. Within these pillars there are clear spaces where Canada can make significant progress and which are more pressing for our national interests.
Defence, Beyond Presence
As Arctic ice continues to melt, all Arctic and some non-Arctic nations are positioning themselves to........