What’s the likelihood that Tristan Jarry will be an upgrade on Stuart Skinner?
On Friday morning, the Edmonton Oilers finally made their major goaltending move. It was a deal that sent their starting goalie in Stuart Skinner, alongside defenceman Brett Kulak and a 2029 second-round pick, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for goaltender Tristan Jarry. Fans and media alike have clamoured for the Oilers to make an upgrade in net for years, and it’s certainly not difficult to see why. The team’s goaltending tandem has been wildly inconsistent, and has particularly left a lot to be desired with their performance in the playoffs. In my opinion, they should have made a goaltending change a long time ago.That all being said, this decision by Edmonton is not exactly a surefire bet either. Indeed, Tristan Jarry is having a fine season thus far. Glancing at the numbers, he had a .909 save percentage in 14 games with Pittsburgh, while EvolvingHockey’s model has him at roughly 9 goals saved above expected. Quite good. However, it must be mentioned that Jarry was placed on waivers not even a full year ago, having a much less appealing .893 save percentage and -4.6 GSAx in a sample size of 36 games in the 2024-25 season. It is not a guarantee that his current performance will be sustained. So, will Jarry be an upgrade on Skinner? Can he backstop Edmonton to a Stanley Cup, or will the Oilers’ goaltending problems remain unsolved? Let’s take a closer look.First, we’ll begin with a statistical comparison of Skinner and Jarry’s results. Specifically, I will primarily be using the metric GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) over raw SV%. The problem with a stat like SV% is that it treats every shot equally, whether a........