How should the Oilers deploy their defensive pairings?

As we near the 50-game mark of the 2025-26 NHL regular-season, the Edmonton Oilers rank second place in the Pacific Division. However, their overall performance certainly has significant room for improvement, particularly for the standards of a cup contender.

This season, the Oilers rank 23rd in the NHL in five-on-five goal differential, having been out‑scored 100 to 110 at five-on-five. Their power-play remains elite, and both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to produce at sky-high rates, but several flaws in the team’s even-strength game persist, issues that will need to be addressed if this is to be the season Edmonton lifts the Stanley Cup.

Much of the conversation this season has centred on Edmonton’s goaltending instability and the immense struggles of the bottom‑six forwards, and understandably so. However, I believe that has somewhat overshadowed another issue in the team’s game: the defence.

Per EvolvingHockey, the Oilers rank 19th in the NHL in scoring chances allowed per hour. Not nearly good enough for a cup contender. I would also argue that a significant contributing factor to their overall subpar goal differential has been the underwhelming performance of their defensive core in various areas, from puck-moving to defending in their own end.

In this piece, I would like to take a closer look at Edmonton’s defensive pairs and how they could (and should) deploy them moving forward.

*All stats via EvolvingHockey and Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise

An overview of the defensive core’s results thus far

Here is a glance at the results of Edmonton’s three defensive pairings at this point of the season:

Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have remained Edmonton’s top-pairing, and they continue to produce strong possession results. A 56 percent expected goal share for a pairing consistently playing against the league’s best is quite impressive. Their actual goal share is only 2, but it’s largely the result of a poor PDO, which should eventually regress to the mean; in simpler terms, expect the actual goals to improve as the season goes on.

That being said, while the raw possession and scoring chance numbers are strong, it’s worth mentioning that they are not as dominant as they once were. In the prior three seasons, their xGoal% ranked at 60 percent, while their actual goal share was an even better 61 percent. Their high-danger chances allowed per hour rate has worsened from 9.3 to 10.7 this........

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