For the Biden administration, an Israel-Saudi normalization accord is the diplomatic equivalent of catching a white whale on the high seas. It's of such historical importance that U.S. officials were willing to give away the store by offering concrete security assurances to Saudi Arabia and assistance with Riyadh's nuclear energy aspirations. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has long been open to establishing formal diplomatic relations with Israel, going so far as to call the Jewish state a "potential ally." For MBS, striking a deal with Israel could kill two birds with one stone: extracting security concessions from the Americans and giving the Saudis a key partner in its decades-long rivalry with Iran.
Then came Oct. 7. Hamas' terrorist attack in Southern Israel, and Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, has upended the Biden administration's plans. With Gaza now looking like a moonscape after six months of fighting, the Saudis are no longer as eager to sign a normalization agreement as they were back in 2023.
The price for a Saudi signature, already high before the war, is now even higher. Whereas the Saudis probably could have lived with a few token Israeli concessions to the Palestinians last year (perhaps in the way of handing over additional chunks of the West Bank to Palestinian Authority control), they are now demanding far more on the Palestinian file. Today, nothing short of........