We underestimate El Niño's impacts to our peril
Trouble is brewing in the Pacific. El Niño is coming. And once again, the world does not seem ready for the challenges it brings.
El Niño is a natural climate event that occurs every few years and lasts up to 12 months. It typically begins in June or July, with its most dramatic impacts on these parts usually arriving in late fall and winter.
The peculiar problem this year is that scientists are increasingly convinced that the developing El Niño will be a strong one, possibly a "super" El Niño, which means its many harmful effects will be worse than usual. That's saying something, given that an El Niño typically brings drought to Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of Africa and increased rainfall to South America and across the southern tier of the United States, among other things.
An El Niño begins when surface water temperatures in the Pacific rise 0.5°C above average. We're in super El Niño territory when the rise exceeds 2°C. Some scientists say this year's event could top 3°C. Historically, the........
