Modi's Foreign Policy Stress-Test: Ukraine To Gaza To Minerals Meet |
The past eighteen months have tested India’s diplomatic acuity as few periods have in recent memory. From navigating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to managing a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, and these crises unfolding alongside political shifts in key partners, notably the United States under President Donald Trump’s second term, which introduced unpredictability, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has shown an unusual capacity for crisis management.
It has protected India’s economic interests whilst maintaining its independence from great-power rivalries that demand ideological commitment rather than pragmatic self-interest.
In sum, India’s foreign policy has repeatedly been subjected to simultaneous, overlapping shocks, each testing its ability to safeguard economic and security interests while maintaining flexibility. New Delhi’s responses have emphasised strategic autonomy, diplomatic balance, and risk mitigation.
The forthcoming critical minerals ministerial in Washington, where External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar meets Secretary of State Marco Rubio, represents the next stage of this test. The question is whether Team Modi can convert this crisis management credibility into durable gains in a new world order that is being shaped every passing day.
The critical minerals ministerial convened by Secretary Rubio on February 4 emerges from the context of demonstrated Indian diplomatic maturity. The ministerial itself represents a significant shift in American strategic thinking. That Washington has elevated critical minerals from a sectoral concern to a matter of state-level engagement signals recognition that semiconductor supply chains, rare earth elements, and allied resources are now vectors of strategic competition comparable to military power.
India’s position within this emerging architecture is fraught with both opportunity and constraint. India was notably delayed in receiving an invitation to Pax Silica, announced by the incoming US Ambassador to India on January 12, 2026, a month after the founding summit. Other nations critical to global semiconductor production, including Taiwan, have not yet joined formally, whilst others, including France and Germany, maintain observer status or have declined participation. The delayed invite suggested India was not an automatic member of Washington’s preferred circle, but rather a nation whose inclusion had to be negotiated.
Yet India’s strategic minerals situation makes its participation valuable. India has identified 30 minerals as critical to its energy transition and manufacturing ambitions. These include cobalt and rare earth elements that India possesses in significant quantities but has historically underexploited.
Domestic policy reforms, including amendments to the Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation (MMDR) Act, have begun liberalising exploration. India’s government has committed $10 billion to semiconductor capability building, with major investments underway: Tata........