Opinion | A Troubled Neighbourhood: Bangladesh’s Turmoil And India’s Strategic Tightrope |
Kolkata and West Bengal are currently immersed in Christmas celebrations. Despite the Christian population being less than one per cent, the enthusiasm makes it feel like an ethnic festival. This fervour, a remnant of the colonial past, has only intensified in recent times, partly due to political support. In stark contrast, just across the eastern borders in Bangladesh, the situation is far from festive as the country is engulfed in political turmoil fuelled by radical elements. So, on one side there is a conscious display of syncretic culture, whereas on the other there is a concerted rise of fundamentalist forces. This comparison is striking but holds significant relevance for India in the current domestic and geo-political context.
The immediate spark for the unrest was the killing of Osman Hadi, a prominent youth leader involved in the ‘student-led’ July 2024 uprising. Despite the multifaceted and complex underlying causes, the violence is mainly directed at the previously ruling Awami League. However, the anger is now being redirected towards India. India is perceived as an ally of the Awami League’s exiled leader, Sheikh Hasina, having provided her refuge after the 2024 coup and refusing her extradition as demanded by the new Bangladeshi government. This situation has led to anti-India protests and an attack on the Indian Deputy High Commission premises in Chittagong, prompting India to suspend visa services.
Since its creation in 1971, Bangladesh has never fully embraced a pro-India stance. In the best of times, it could be described as India-neutral. The Awami League’s relationship with successive governments in Delhi has been fluctuating and may be characterised as ‘friends with benefits’. However, in recent times Sheikh Hasina and........