Opinion | Why Iran Will Have To Change — But Not The Way America And Israel Imagine |
Strategic circles in India are actively debating the prospects of regime change in Iran, with no clear consensus but considerable misreading—particularly the assumption that Tehran could witness a Venezuela-style outcome. Even if such an attempt were made, its success would be far from assured, and the consequences could be severe: prolonged instability across the Gulf, disruption of global energy flows, and serious repercussions for the international economy.
A similar misjudgement pervades contemporary Western and Israeli strategic thinking, where Iran is treated as just another authoritarian state vulnerable to calibrated military pressure or covert destabilisation. This approach, applied elsewhere with mixed or disastrous results, is profoundly unsuited to Iran. Iran is not merely a regime; it is a civilisational state, rooted in history, culture, and identity that long predate both the modern nation-state and the Islamic Republic. While public discontent is undeniable, the institutional architecture that sustains both state and regime remains resilient and deeply entrenched.
The temptation to view Iran through templates borrowed from elsewhere reflects a broader analytical weakness: the tendency to equate military capability with political leverage. The US and Israel command formidable coercive power, but power does not automatically confer control over social outcomes. Air campaigns, precision strikes, and decapitation strategies may degrade infrastructure or intimidate leadership circles, yet they rarely succeed in reordering societies with strong internal cohesion. Iran belongs squarely in this category. It has survived invasions, sanctions, isolation, and internal upheavals—not because it is static, but because it possesses a deeply internalised sense of continuity.
This civilisational depth is often misunderstood or ignored. Iranian society is not culturally rigid or socially inert. On the contrary, it is among the most intellectually vibrant and socially progressive populations in West Asia. Its people are deeply conscious of their cultural heritage — expressed through........