Opinion | Has The US-Iran Memorandum Of Understanding Already Started To Collapse?

Lt Gen Devendra Pandey

Tactical military success without strategic clarity rarely produces durable peace.

“Power is measured not by the ability to wage war, but by the wisdom to convert military success into enduring political advantage."

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The debate surrounding the Iran–US Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has rapidly become polarised. One school argues that President Donald Trump has walked into a strategic trap that several of his predecessors carefully avoided. Others contend that the agreement merely represents a temporary pause in a conflict that neither side was prepared to escalate into a full-scale war.

The truth may lie somewhere in between.

Much of the diplomacy that shaped the agreement remains hidden behind closed doors, making definitive judgements premature. Yet one conclusion appears increasingly evident. Throughout both his presidencies, Donald Trump has consistently demonstrated a preference for avoiding prolonged military conflicts. His strategic instinct has been to employ coercive military power for limited political objectives rather than pursue open-ended wars.

Events since the signing of the MoU, however, suggest that Washington may have entered a conventional military confrontation without a fully developed political end-state. Having accepted responsibility for restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after the crisis of 28 February 2026, the United States now finds itself in a position where partial military success has not translated into strategic stability.

The agreement itself reflected this predicament. Reliance on external mediators, including Pakistan and, ultimately, Qatar, illustrated Washington’s determination to avoid prolonged escalation. While mediation prevented the immediate expansion of the conflict, it also projected an image of strategic urgency rather than strategic confidence.

Iran has almost certainly recognised this reality.

Consequently, Tehran has continued to push the limits of coercion while raising the political cost for Washington and its regional partners. At the same time, the Gulf monarchies have been exposed to an uncomfortable truth. For decades, many have outsourced their security almost entirely to the United States while investing comparatively little in........

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