Opinion | Understanding Terrorism In Jammu And Kashmir After Abrogation Of Article 370 |
The shocking unravelling of the ‘white-collar’ terrorist ring of radicalised doctors in Kashmir, planning to orchestrate synchronised bomb explosions at multiple locations, has raised many alarming questions, challenging many of our assumptions. First and foremost, the dominant narrative in the mainstream counter-terrorism discourse in India is that after the abrogation of Article 370, militancy has declined in J&K, and Pakistan is facing an existential crisis, fast losing support on the ground.
Having reviewed the security landscape of J&K in the last seven years, it is amply evident that the Pak-sponsored separatist ecosystem suffered major reverses in the initial phase.
As a result of NIA’s massive crackdown on terror financing and the separatist ecosystem, leading to the arrest of prominent secessionist leaders, OGWs, terror financing coordinators, radical activists and hawala conduits, SF’s neutralisation of major terrorist cadres, India’s robust kinetic response in the conventional war domain against Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks like the Uri fidayeen and Pulwama fidayeen attack, cessation of the LoC trade and ban on the Jamaat-i-Islami, and security and communication lockdown following the Article 370 abrogation, the Islamist ecosystem suffered a significant setback, resulting in a sharp decline in stone-pelting. However, in terms of the intensity and number of terror attacks, the number increased from 135 in 2019 to 153 in 2021; after that, there is a continuous decline, from 151 attacks in 2022 to 34 in 2025. Civilian casualties have declined from 42 in 2019 to 28 in 2025. The casualties of the SFs have also dropped from 78 in 2019 to 16 in 2025. The number of terrorists killed increased from 163 in 2019 to 232 in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, 193 terrorists were neutralised; however, after that, there was a sharp decline from 87 terrorists killed in 2023 to 46 in 2025.
The statistical figures mentioned above do not capture the full picture of reality in J&K. The fact, buried beneath these statistics, is that Pakistan has drastically changed its strategy and tactics in the context of militancy. Immediately after India’s Kashmir move, Pakistan rolled out a slew of terrorist groups with secular-sounding names like the Resistance Force, Kashmir Tigers, People’s Anti-Fascist Force, etc. The underlying idea was to signal that the Kashmiri struggle is for genuine local grievances and secular issues like the right to self-determination, and not a product of Pakistan-sponsored religious radicalisation. The strategy helped Pakistan maintain plausible deniability, evade the FATF scrutiny and keep the pot boiling in Kashmir. Many terrorist killings occurred in Kashmir, primarily targeting the non-Kashmiri labourers and businessmen, with a deliberate intent to create a perception that the killings were an expression of Kashmiri angst against the government for abrogating Article 370, thereby allowing the non-locals to settle in Kashmir. These groups had sophisticated propaganda operations through posters and social media posts after the terror attacks. Most Indian analysts and intelligence agencies kept venturing down the wrong path, exploring........