Nearly four years into war, Russia has gained little — and Ukraine keeps bouncing back, despite some 2 million draft dodgers |
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has rejected peace.
He’s trying to convince the world that the Ukrainian lines are nearing collapse to get President Trump to force Ukraine to surrender. But Putin is lying.
Nearly four years into the conflict, which began Feb. 24, 2022, Ukrainian lines are holding. Russian advances remain very slow and costly. It’s Putin who should be pressured to recognize the futility of continuing to spend the blood of Ukrainians and Russians on his futile dreams of conquest.
Outnumbered and wounded, Ukraine is still managing to hold Russia back and impose heavy casualties on Russian forces despite its own challenges.
New Ukrainian defense chief Mykhailo Fedorov said this week that 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers are missing in action and about 2 million have dodged the draft, and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have plunged Kyiv into cold.
But Russians are not marching to victory. Their forces are suffering 20,000 to 25,000 deaths a month, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. That’s a monthly casualty rate close to the upper end of estimates of the Soviet Union’s total losses lost in the entire decade-long Afghanistan war, Rutte noted.
One square kilometer of Ukrainian land cost Russia 93 casualties on average in 2025, and Russia has incurred similar casualties in previous years.
Russian recruitment is struggling to offset troop losses. Russia recruited 406,000 people in 2025, according to the Kremlin, and Ukrainian estimates suggest that casualties exceeded 410,000 over the past year. This may force Putin to make hard and socially unpopular decisions if he remains determined to pursue his dream of conquering Ukraine.
After failing to accomplish its initial three-day objective of toppling Kyiv, Russia has now fought in Ukraine longer than it fought Germany during World War II. The Russians have neither collapsed Ukrainian defenses nor can they drive on Kyiv.
In fact, Russian advances in Ukraine have plateaued since early........