Kamala Harris’s momentum has slowed just a bit. It’s still real. She’s still leading in the polls by around three points, even though we all had our ritual freakout Sunday morning over the latest Times/Siena poll. She’s ahead or competitive in swing states where Joe Biden was six or seven points behind. But the initial burst of excitement she enjoyed has, as is routine, faded, and she’s been off the trail for a few days preparing for the debate at the expense of stoking voter enthusiasm. But this is a reasonable short-term investment: A good performance Tuesday night can put wind back in her sails. A bad one will have the press start writing a Donald Trump comeback narrative. It was a consequential debate that brought us to this point. Harris is smart to assume this next one could put a twist in the tale of this election year—provided she wins.

To me, Tuesday’s debate comes down to two challenges. One, Harris needs to come across as confident, sure of herself, in command of facts. She would be well-served to toss out one or two new policy ideas, just to quiet the criticism that she’s short on specifics. All this, I feel reasonably sure she can do.

The second hurdle is the more worrisome one. Trump is going to savage her in every way he can think of. It’s who he is. He can’t believe he’s losing to a Black woman, and he can’t possibly comprehend the fact that America likes her better. Harris’s favorability rating isn’t exactly high, but she was in the red on that score for most of the last four years by 15 or so points—until she became the nominee, when her favorable numbers spiked. Now, she’s even. Trump remains 10 points underwater.

He knows there’s only one way he can win: He needs to get........

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