Trump’s Weakness Suddenly Puts Texas in Play—a Surprise Poll Shows How

A New York Times survey has James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied—and shows how Talarico can actually win this thing.

Look, I get it. Democrats have been burned by hopes for a Texas miracle so many times that it feels risky to place stock in this year’s Senate race. But a new poll of the contest from The New York Times finds a dead heat, with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each earning 47 percent of likely voters. In short: This is a real race. In Texas.

Some have reacted with consternation to this poll, because previous ones had Talarico slightly up. This is, in my view, the wrong reaction. The Times poll is the gold standard—if this survey finds a tie, the race truly is a dead heat, meaning it’s actually winnable for Talarico. This was always going to be close. It will be very hard for Talarico to win. But it’s doable.

Talarico’s candidacy is an object lesson in what happens when liberals speak forcefully on behalf of what they truly believe—and here the Times poll sheds some light. For instance: Majorities of Texas voters say Talarico has “good character” and “the right moral values,” whereas majorities don’t say that of Paxton. And more see Paxton as extreme (49 percent) than see Talarico (43 percent) that way.

What should we make of this? Paxton and the entire GOP-MAGA apparatus are spending enormous sums of money to tar Talarico as unmasculine based on his previous positions on gender and religion. Talarico has walked back some of them. But, critically, he hasn’t done this fearfully and defensively.

Instead, Talarico has characterized the criticism........

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