How Trump’s Wars Might Kick Off the Next Big Refugee Crisis |
How Trump’s Wars Might Kick Off the Next Big Refugee Crisis
As the U.S. and Israel push the region into deeper crisis, the possibility of massive displacement—and the authoritarian backlash that comes with it—is on the rise.
As the chaos of Trump’s war on Iran and the stilted, tumultuous ceasefire negotiations drag on, the world has been watching with steep concern over the short- and long-term economic and energy ramifications. Most visibly, Iran has for weeks limited access to the Strait of Hormuz, recently attacking several ships transiting the crucial channel even as the U.S. attempts its own blockade.
The war has further strained U.S. relationships with global allies like the EU and Japan, and the discord has spilled over into Gulf States like the United Arab Emirates that had once considered themselves relatively insulated from regional conflicts and are now reevaluating their security, economic approach, and global ties. Beyond fuel, the conflict has led to a global shortage of fertilizer, leading to fears of food insecurity.
There is, however, one dimension to the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon that has been overshadowed by the overlapping energy, military, and diplomatic crises: human displacement. Per the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, some 3.2 million people are already internally displaced within Iran. While a trickle has already headed to the relative safety of neighboring Turkey, this remains an issue mostly contained within Iran itself, but that could easily change under a set of very plausible scenarios.
There are, broadly speaking, at least two relatively likely outcomes that could lead to significant refugee outflows from Iran: In one, the regime remains broadly in charge and viable, likely with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps occupying an even more influential role in the country’s governance, and with a freer hand to to crack down far harder on pro-democracy protesters and others who may be emboldened to more publicly stake out opposition in the wake of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death and Trump’s encouragement.
Prior to the start of this conflict, Iranian security forces had killed what a network........