Japan Amid Rising Global Tensions

US-Israeli aggression against Iran has global side effects that also affect Japanese interests. In addition to that, Tokyo is already confronting a whole range of issues of varying degrees of severity and significance.

Reaction to the armed conflict in the Persian Gulf

It is therefore not difficult to imagine the reaction of Japan’s leadership to sudden problems in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has had an extremely negative impact not only on abstract stock market indicators of Japan’s economic activity but also on concrete, tangible indicators affecting both ordinary citizens and businesses. Above all, this concerns the sharp rise in hydrocarbon prices, the lifeblood of a modern economy. Moreover, Japan, being deeply integrated into the global economic system, can only address the problem of rising hydrocarbon prices in cooperation with other countries.

On March 11, Prime Minister Takaichi announced her government’s readiness to immediately begin using the country’s strategic oil reserves, which can sustain the country for about 250 days. This decision was presented as a contribution to similar efforts by other countries aimed at preventing a panic-driven rise in global hydrocarbon prices. The very next day, it was announced that Japan would accept the recommendations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to immediately begin releasing 400 million barrels of oil from reserves onto the international market. Japan’s share will be 80 million barrels, accounting for just under 20% of its combined public and private oil reserves.

However, it is clear that the IEA’s decision is nothing more than “emergency aid” for the suddenly and dangerously ailing body of the global economy. Preventing its collapse is only possible by unblocking the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of a (hypothetical) agreement to end the military operations that have broken out there.

In the meantime, the instigator of the conflict is seeking to draw its own allies into it. Japan, for its part, has adopted a wait‑and‑see stance, while not outright refusing military assistance to its key ally. Direct confrontation is not part of Takaichi’s plans, for whom the factor of negotiations with Trump has become extremely important.

It is worth noting that in recent years Japan has been trying to strengthen its trade and economic presence in the Indian Ocean with a military component. However, this process is still in its early stages.

Tensions around Japan rise

The situation in the immediate vicinity of Japan, stretching to the west and south, is becoming increasingly alarming. This process, which was mentioned earlier, is particularly evident here.

The main reason for the activation of Tokyo’s military policy in this region is the complicated relationship with China, which has reached a critical point following Prime Minister Takaichi’s provocative statement regarding the Taiwan issue, which is very sensitive for Beijing.

Japan’s subsequent actions confirm that this was not merely a slip of the tongue. The Japanese government is undertaking a comprehensive set of measures in the field of defense and security. These measures affect both domestic aspects and the situation in adjacent regions. Naturally, Beijing perceived these steps with great wariness.

Domestic transformations in the defense sphere

On the domestic front, Japan is actively moving toward the complete removal of all self-imposed defense restrictions that have been in place since the post-war period. It is worth noting that it was largely these restrictions that contributed to Japan’s transformation into the world’s third-largest economy. However, unfortunately, the realities of the modern world are forcing the country to pay more attention to costly defense issues.

In the near future, an early revision of Japan’s key defense documents is expected. A revision of Article 9 of the post-war Constitution, known as the anti-war clause, is also becoming more and more likely. The ruling coalition has already agreed on the procedure for lifting the ban on the export of lethal weapons. This will not only give impetus to developing Japan’s defense industry but will also expand Tokyo’s foreign policy arsenal. The process of consolidating several intelligence services is nearing completion. The deployment of Type 12 surface-to-surface medium-range missiles has begun on Japanese territory, and they are likely to also be installed on naval vessels.

International activity

Regarding foreign policy, the Ministry of Defense’s plans to deploy an air defense system on Yonaguni Island by 2031 are of interest. This island is the southernmost in the Ryukyu Islands and is located just 100 km east of Taiwan. There were also joint military exercises conducted by the United States, Japan, and the Philippines in late February in the Luzon Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines. A visit by Defense Minister Koizumi to the Philippines and Indonesia – key countries in the strategically important subregion of Southeast Asia –is scheduled for May-June.

Takaichi government’s internal problems

The Takaichi government is facing a complex set of domestic issues, two of which are closely interrelated.

Firstly, the country’s accelerated depopulation continues, as evidenced by the latest data. Against this backdrop, one recalls the focus of the former US ambassador, who served under the Democratic Party, on introducing a “new normal” in Japan, despite the very real prospect of a national catastrophe. His mission was obviously doomed with Trump’s victory in the 2024 elections.

Secondly, attempts by Japanese governments to compensate for labor shortages through migrants are generating social side effects. These problems have become central to domestic political struggles over the past year, especially ahead of the February 8 snap elections. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party succeeded by co-opting the migrant issue from the growing Sanseito party, the so-called Japanese “Trumpists.” As a result, one of the first steps of the Takaichi government was to tighten the rules for the entry and residence of migrants in the country.

Finally, Japan, like other global players, is seeking its own path amid a rapidly changing world order, the nature of which is difficult to predict.

Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region

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