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Yemen on the Brink of New War: How the Saudi-UAE Coalition Split Threatens Regional Chaos

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The latest flare-up in Yemen has exposed deep fissures within the Arab coalition, turning former allies into rivals for control over strategic territories and oil resources.

The Strike on Mukalla: A Political Challenge, Not a Military Operation

The limited yet highly symbolic airstrike by the Saudi-led coalition on the port of Mukalla marked a point of no return in the relations between the two once-brotherly Gulf states. The destruction of cargo, which Riyadh claims was destined for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), was perceived as an act of direct confrontation. This was not a military but a political shot, clearly delineating Saudi Arabia’s “red line”: no foreign support for separatist movements in Yemen.

The response from the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Council, headed by Rashad al-Alimi, was immediate and harsh. In a televised address, he ordered all UAE armed forces to leave the country within 24 hours, canceled the defense treaty with Abu Dhabi, declared a 90-day state of emergency, and imposed a 72-hour blockade on ports. These measures, going far beyond usual diplomatic démarches, show how seriously Riyadh is taking the actions of its coalition partner.

Split at the Heart of the Coalition: Two Strategies for One Yemen

At the core of the current crisis lies a fundamental divergence in the strategic approaches of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the Yemen question.

Saudi Arabia consistently and actively advocates for preserving Yemen’s territorial integrity. For Riyadh, a unified Yemen is a necessary condition for achieving a sustainable political settlement and a guarantee of long-term stability on its southern borders. The Kingdom is betting on the legitimate government and seeks a negotiation process, even if it implies dialogue........

© New Eastern Outlook