The future of Syria remains uncertain and unclear. Many experts and diplomats doubt the sincerity of the intentions of the leadership of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS) group, which previously had links with the terrorist organizations ISIL* and Al-Qaeda* banned in Russia.
The fall of the Assad regime
In 2015, when the militants were close to overthrowing Assad, US officials believed that a complete victory for the terrorist groups and the collapse of the regime would be a “catastrophic success”. However, between 2015 and 2020, Assad managed to retake most of the country that was under the control of armed groups. After that, the war entered a protracted stalemate.
Turkey has retained control over several militant groups in northern Syria. At the same time, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) seized the east of the country, including the most valuable agricultural lands and oil fields.
Due to the harsh US sanctions and the economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon, the whole of Syria, especially the government-controlled territories, found itself in a deep economic crisis. The Syrian state institutions and armed forces were gradually weakening, and the government lacked the resources to stabilize and rebuild the territories recaptured from the terrorists.
This year, the remaining armed militants have taken advantage of the difficult situation of the Assad regime. On November 27, the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham* group and others heavily armed US formations, which had been in a Turkish-protected stronghold in the northwestern province of Idlib for years, launched an offensive on the northern city of Aleppo. When they broke through the defenses of the Syrian army and captured the city, it led to the defeat and collapse of the Syrian army throughout the country.
The HTS-led forces were advancing south from Aleppo towards the capital Damascus. At the same time, Syrians in the center and south of the country, including areas previously controlled by........