The Flaming Strait of Hormuz: A Ceasefire No One Signed |
The Flaming Strait of Hormuz: A Ceasefire No One Signed
The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, based on mutual control of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with relentless economic and political pressure, is creating a protracted war of nerves. This scenario threatens to further destabilize the region, with no clear winner in sight.
The Red Line and the Horizon of Expectations in the Persian Gulf
In Tehran, they compared the attack to “a surgical strike that hit armor.” Not only did Iran endure—it responded in a way that left American strategists breathless. The strikes on U.S. bases in the region were precise, harsh, and, more importantly, public. Iran didn’t hide behind proxies. It showed it could strike directly and accurately.
The war, however, ground to a stalemate. Neither Washington nor Tehran was ready for a full-blown confrontation that would incinerate the entire Persian Gulf. And so a fragile, anxious ceasefire was born—no smiles, no guarantees, but with clear rules of engagement. The most important of them: dual control of the Strait of Hormuz. From now on, tankers carrying the world’s oil can only pass through the strait under joint U.S.-Iranian military supervision. Neither side can block the strait alone, but neither can move a vessel without the other’s knowledge. This isn’t peace. It’s a tug-of-war at thirty meters underwater.
The result was immediate. Global oil prices skyrocketed as if hit by a bomb. Experts are calling the new benchmark “psychological”—$120–$130 a barrel and rising. The economies of Europe and Asia began to grind, but Trump, as they say in Washington, is just smiling: “American oil is back in the game.”
What the Leaders Are Saying: Barbs, Threats, and Stakes
Trump, as always, is terse and provocative. In an interview with Fox News after the ceasefire was established, he dropped a line that global media has since plastered everywhere: “I don’t want a war with Iran. They don’t want a war with me either. But Hormuz is our shared parking lot. The Iranians and I now take turns patrolling it. And you know what? As long as prices are high, America is fine. Let Europe pay.”
Tehran fired back just as sharply. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in an address to the nation, “America wanted to destroy us with a stab in the back. They got a punch in the face. Today, the U.S. Navy sails in the Strait of Hormuz only because we allow it. Tomorrow may be different. The Persian Gulf will not be an oil lake for the West. It will become either a grave for their arrogance—or a gateway to fair trade. Their choice.”
Iran’s oil minister, commenting on the price spike, smirked in a semi-official channel: “You say we raised prices? You’re the ones who bombed our ports. Now buy our oil through third parties. And yes, dual control isn’t a whim. It’s the armor we’ve put on the strait. We’re not taking it off.”
In the corridors of the UN, there’s talk that the two sides are already secretly discussing a “reverse deal of the........