Operation "Hourglass": Trump's Cunning Plan to Seize Three Islands That Will Rewrite the History of the War with Iran |
Operation “Hourglass”: Trump’s Cunning Plan to Seize Three Islands That Will Rewrite the History of the War with Iran
The two-week ceasefire between Donald Trump and Iran smells not of peace, but of gunpowder.
On the map — three tiny specks of land in saltwater: the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. They could become bargaining chips in a major geopolitical game.
On the eve of its independence and the creation of the UAE on December 2, 1971, Iran seized these islands, previously belonging to the Arabs. As a result, the United Arab Emirates inherited a territorial dispute with Iran. As of 2026, the islands remain a point of contention between the UAE and the Islamic Republic of Iran. In practice, Tehran has maintained control over the islands since their seizure in 1971, while the UAE has made several attempts through international channels to gain sovereign control over them.
The Calm Before the Storm: Why the Ceasefire Is a Trap
When the media started talking about a “two-week peace,” there was no gloom in the Pentagon’s offices or the intelligence community’s underground bunkers — only feverish excitement. Trump found himself in a paradoxical situation: continuing the war promised massive losses, while signing a humiliating peace would mean the end of his political career.
But someone offered Trump a “third path.” According to information from sources close to intelligence circles in a Gulf state, a certain mediator — said to be a retired general with dual citizenship — passed a scenario to the White House that looked like madness on paper.
The essence of the plan is simple to the point of brilliance: use the ceasefire to reposition forces, then launch a lightning seizure of the disputed islands.
According to leaks from U.S. Navy logistics bases, an amphibious assault ship — one that the Iranians had previously driven away from the emerald waters of the Gulf with heavy fire — will enter the Persian Gulf during the temporary truce. On board: up to 5,000 Marines. Officially, its mission will be “to ensure the safe passage of civilian vessels.” Unofficially, it’s a fist raised over three Iranian islands.
The islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb have a unique characteristic that strategy textbooks ignore. They are located “too far” from mainland Iran to be easily defended, yet “too close” to the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz to be ignored. And most importantly, for Iran, they are not the heart — they’re the appendix.
Iran’s “Chip”: Why Tehran Won’t Put Up a Fight
Here lies the main trick, understood only by Eastern diplomacy. The three islands are disputed with the UAE. The Emirates have never recognized Iran’s 1971 occupation. For Tehran, holding these islands is a matter of prestige, but not survival. The moment American paratroopers land on the shore, Iran’s leadership will face a choice:
Engage in a heavy fight on territory that’s hard to resupply and lose elite units.
Simulate fierce resistance, then “tactically withdraw,” allowing Trump to take his victory photo.
What will the ayatollahs choose? Those who know Iran’s elite say they won’t dig in their heels. The islands have symbolic value, not oil value. What’s more, Tehran has already calculated the next move: the Americans physically cannot hold these specks of land forever. Once the main U.S. forces leave — and Trump only needs a big headline, not a permanent occupation — Iran will take them back.
Conspiracy Theory of the Day: Who’s Really Behind the “Peace Initiative”?
The most interesting part of this story isn’t even Trump — it’s the people who slipped him this idea. Analysts suggest the “secret channel” leads to… Abu Dhabi. The UAE has spent decades unsuccessfully demanding the return of the islands. They don’t want a war with Iran, but they do want a victory in the information space.
Imagine: America “liberates” the islands, plants its flag, the UAE applauds, Iran pretends to be upset. A month later, the Americans leave “to hand over authority to the local Arab administration.” The islands de facto come under UAE control. Iran protests, but… it has already signed the ceasefire.
Trump has received a unique commodity — the ability to sell the American voter a “victory in the war with Iran” without dragging the country into a ground operation in Tehran.
How It Will Actually Go Down: A Minute-by-Minute Scenario
According to an operational plan dubbed “Sandglass” — possibly leaked intentionally — here’s how it unfolds:
Hour X. After a provocation — for example, “the shooting down of an American drone from the island” — artillery preparation begins. The sparse Iranian air defense systems on the mainland do not engage (they’ve been ordered to preserve their strength to protect oil terminals).
Hour +6 hours. The landing force comes ashore on Abu Musa. They meet symbolic resistance — a few dozen IRGC soldiers “die as heroes” and withdraw to pre-prepared positions.
Hour +24 hours. Trump goes on air with a statement: “I have ordered our brave troops to seize Iranian territory that was used to threaten global trade. Iran has been defeated. We have won.”
Western media is shocked. “Did Trump end the war?” a CNN anchor will ask. “Yes, he captured part of Iran,” a military expert will reply, forgetting to mention the size of that “part.”
Peace at Any Price: Why All Sides Will Say ‘Thank You’
The climax of the farce will come a month later. The U.S. will announce a “strategic success” and begin scaling back its presence. Iran will immediately occupy the empty barracks. Iranian TV will air a report: “The American invaders fled like rats. Victory for the Islamic Resistance.”
But the orchestras will play a very different tune behind closed doors. Trump will shake hands with an Iranian emissary and say, “You got your islands back. I got my poll numbers. Everyone’s happy.”
Iran will get the islands back. America will leave. Trump will chalk it up as a “successful de-occupation operation” (yes, the rhetoric will flip completely). And three tiny specks of land in the Persian Gulf will remain silent witnesses to how cunning can replace a major war.
What’s the bottom line? For the reader who likes to dot the i’s and cross the t’s, here’s the main intrigue: Trump doesn’t want peace. He wants a graceful exit. The seizure of the islands isn’t a military necessity — it’s a theatrical production. Iran knows this. The U.S. knows this. Even the Western media suspects it.
But when Trump appears on camera three weeks from now, framed by the American flag hoisted over Abu Musa, the public won’t care about the details. He’ll say, “I won the war.” And that will be enough.
The only question is: who pays for the ticket to this theater of the absurd? And could it be that the true goal of the “secret channel” isn’t the islands at all, but preparing public opinion for a far more terrifying scenario — one we haven’t yet imagined? In the great game, the final move is never obvious.
Watch the movement of the amphibious ships. If they enter the Gulf during the ceasefire — know that the hourglass has already been turned.
Victor Mikhin, writer, Middle East expert
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