Crisis in Iran: Domestic Unrest Amid External Threats |
The outcome of this confrontation will determine not only the future of the Islamic Republic but also a new balance of power across the entire Middle East.
Internal Crisis: Economic Collapse and the Regime’s Delayed Response
The initial cause of public anger was the catastrophic state of the economy. A combination of chronically inefficient management, systemic corruption, and suffocating international sanctions led to the collapse of the rial (losing over 40% of its value in six months) and inflation soaring to 60%. A distinctive feature of the current protests is their social makeup: while the poorest segments were initially partially appeased by subsidies from President Masoud Pezeshkian, the streets have been flooded by the bankrupting middle class, whose patience has run out.
The authorities’ response was initially uncharacteristically restrained. Instead of immediate violent suppression as in the past, the regime attempted to use economic measures and adopted a wait-and-see approach. This pause is explained by several factors. First, the trauma from the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, which depleted resources and forced the regime to seek fragile social legitimacy, temporarily eased, for example, enforcement of hijab rules. Second, the authorities recognize that excessive brutality could shatter this shaky “truce” with the people that emerged after the external aggression. However, by January 8, as protests spread nationwide, the regime shifted to harsh repression: nationwide internet shutdowns, mass arrests (over 2,300 people), and violent crackdowns. According to human rights groups, the death toll exceeds 65, including security personnel.
Israel’s Actions: A Strategy of Destabilization “From Within”
Israel plays a key role in the current........