Mogadishu is tightening its conditions for reaching an agreement

Explaining the reason for Mogadishu’s ultimatum, the Somali Foreign Minister said in a press conference that it was also a response to Addis Ababa’s desire to maintain its military presence on Somali territory as part of the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is due to replace ATMIS in January 2025.

He insisted that “these claims by Ethiopia are unacceptable” and stressed that Somalia, as a sovereign state, has the final say in the composition of the new mission. Should Ethiopian peacekeeping forces arbitrarily remain in Somali territory after December 2024, they would be considered “occupying” forces, according to Hussein Sheikh-Ali, the national security adviser to the Somali President.

Meanwhile, the issue of which countries will contribute to the new peacekeeping force and its operational mandate continues to be a bone of contention, reflecting the broader and more complex geopolitical realities in the Horn of Africa. In particular, it is likely to include Egypt, which, like Djibouti, sees Ethiopia’s access to the sea coast as threat to its revenues from the transit of Ethiopian goods. Units from the two countries are expected to replace the current Ethiopian military contingent of 4,000 troops.

Is Cairo starting to “play with fire” or engaging in the usual posturing?

On August 13, during the Ankara talks, in a step that can be described as nothing short of an attempt by Egypt and Somalia to blackmail Ethiopia, the Somali President visited Cairo, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the signing of a protocol on cooperation between the Armed Forces of Egypt and Somalia. After signing the document, el-Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s commitment to preserving Somalia’s territorial integrity and rejected “any interference in its internal affairs.”

The protocol on military cooperation provides, inter alia, for the training of the Somali Armed Forces to counter threats to Somalia’s territorial integrity, as well as the training of special forces to fight Al-Shabaab terrorists.

According to the Qatari publication The New Arab, the........

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