Containment, Resistance, and the Future of US–Iran Relations |
Containment, Resistance, and the Future of US–Iran Relations
Since the end of the US-Iran negotiations in Oman and the Trump-Netanyahu summit, Washington’s policies indicate that a war between the US and Iran is imminent.
From Revolution to Rivalry: Roots of US–Iran Hostility
Many Arab states, especially those in the GCC, also perceive Iran as a rival state due to its regional ambitions. The inclusion of some Arab states in the Abraham Accords is also due to their rivalry with Iran. These states seek a security umbrella from the United States and Israel through the Abraham Accords against any potential threat from Iran. In June 2025, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran. It also coerced the United States into joining the war against Iran. The US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, Iran’s strong response to Israel forced the latter to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Escalation, Nuclear Diplomacy, and the Trump Factor
Iran’s missile attacks on Israel revealed the limitations of the Iron Dome. The global perception of Israel’s invincibility also shattered due to these Iranian attacks. Moreover, Iran’s support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas also hurts Israel’s expansionist ambitions. Therefore, Israel seeks international limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Since the return of Donald Trump to power, the United States has increased its military and economic pressure on Iran. Tensions between the two sides have reached a new apex. The United States has imposed renewed economic sanctions on Iran due to the latter’s high level of uranium enrichment.
Washington seeks for Iran to end its nuclear program. However, Tehran insists that its nuclear program is merely for peaceful purposes and is its legal right. The first round of nuclear negotiations between the two sides was sabotaged by the Israeli attack on Iran. However, through Oman’s mediation, the two sides once again gathered in Muscat for peace talks. Delegates from both sides and Omani mediators expressed satisfaction with the progress made during the second round of nuclear negotiations.
However, the Trump administration, under the duress of the Zionist lobby in the United States and the Israeli government, is following a dual-track approach towards Iran, a move that threatens peace efforts. Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Iran’s trade partners to further intensify economic pressure on the country. Moreover, it also deployed two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and has enhanced its military presence in the region to increase military pressure on Iran. The Trump administration holds that it seeks to limit Iran’s nuclear program. However, its actions and statements of different high-level officials signal that it seeks regime change in Iran to install a pro-West and pro-Israel government in the country.
After the recent round of peace talks between the two sides, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the White House to meet President Trump. Allegedly, Netanyahu asked Donald Trump to include Iran’s ballistic missile program in the agenda of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran. Moreover, Netanyahu also wanted the US to increase pressure on Iran. Recently, US President Donald Trump has issued renewed threats to Iran. While speaking at the inaugural session of the so-called Board of Peace, Donald Trump stated, “So now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.” He further stated, “We have to make a meaningful deal. Otherwise, bad things happen.”
The Regional and Global Consequences of War
Such rhetoric, combined with growing US military deployments in the Middle East, suggests that the United States, along with Israel, is ready to attack Iran. As per reports, Iran, on its part, is also ready for a long war with Israel and the United States. Indeed, a war between the US, along with Israel, and Iran is imminent in the coming weeks. This war will not only be between Iran and the United States. It will engulf the whole Middle Eastern region. Iran will target all the US and Israeli military bases in the region. Moreover, the US and Israel will also target all the proxy groups that will join the war with Iran.
The consequences of this war will be felt globally. The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is a critical chokepoint for global trade. Around 20-25 percent of global oil and oil byproducts and 20 percent of LNG pass through this strait annually. Iran could close this strait in case of a war with the United States or Israel. The impacts of the closure of this strait will be felt in every household around the world, including the US. Moreover, this war will further increase global chaos and polarization. A US-Israel attack on Iran will put global peace and stability at risk.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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